Trump Looks Like He Is Doing Coke Again
President Donald Trump visits a manufacturing establish. (Photo credit: JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
Near all the polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump in 2016, and almost all the polls are now predicting that Joe Biden will beat out Trump. They were wrong in 2022 and they are incorrect again.
Four days before the election of 2016, I wrote that "Nib Kristol, who has been wrong all along, now says Hillary will win bigger than Obama did in 2012. My takeaway—it'due south good news for Trump."
The day before the election, I emailed some friends nearly the issue. In two of my missives, I said, "look for a Trump upset tomorrow;" the other 2 said, "I call back the pollsters are all incorrect. Predicting a Trump victory."
I explained Trump'due south appeal every bit early as Feb. 10, 2016. I took aim at his conservative critics, many of whom wrote for National Review and the now-defunct Weekly Standard.
"The fundamental problem with conservative critics of Trump is their class bias. They don't understand the working form. Sheltered in their prep schools and Ivy League institutions, their world is 1 where ideas count, and not much else. They don't empathize the visceral appeal of someone like Trump."
I explained Trump's entreatment: "Candidness and an intolerance for business every bit usual." I so raised a serious question and provided a response. "How is it possible for a billionaire to connect to blue-collar workers but polished politicians cannot? Considering Trump speaks their language. He is bold and decisive, and he is non owned by the political form."
What I wrote drew two laudatory tweets from Trump.
When I said Trump was "assuming and decisive," I was describing the qualities that Americans desire in their leaders. Along with the enthusiasm metric, Trump'southward stiff leadership is why he will win again. At that place is evidence to support my assessment.
Hillary was beating Trump on most variables in 2016, and Biden is doing the same today. Trump trailed her on such matters as being "Comfy with Candidate as President," "Has Temperament to Serve Effectively every bit President," and "Honest & Trustworthy." Similarly, Trump trails Biden on such measures as "Is Likeable," "Honest & Trustworthy," and "Cares about the Needs of People Similar Y'all."
However, on the effect of who is a "Strong and Decisive Leader," Trump trounce Hillary by 4 points and is beating Biden by 10 (56% to 46%). This is non one of those indices that can exist made up in the closing days before the ballot.
Nor can Biden make up ground on the enthusiasm cistron—information technology'south likewise late. Trump led Hillary by eight points in the share of voters who were very enthusiastic about their choice. An ABC poll shows Trump with a xix-bespeak enthusiasm advantage this time.
In 2016, Evan Witt, head of Princeton Survey Research and president of the National Council of Public Polls, aptly noted that "polls do a poor task with emotion/enthusiasm/commitment," which explains why concentrating on such matters equally "caring virtually our needs" misses the signal of why people vote the way they do.
Trump turns a lot of people off, for reasons even his supporters volition acknowledge. Only most people are mature plenty to go past his persona and focus on his policies. Regrettably, some are likewise immature to do then. For example, in 2022 George Will not only predicted Trump would lose, he said it would be meliorate for Republicans if he lost in a landslide. He is now predicting that Trump volition lose to Biden, and will go out "whining."
The polls this time are as inaccurate every bit last time. In 2016, Nate Silvery's much-touted FiveThirtyEight survey showed Hillary with a 71.4% chance of winning versus Trump's 28.six%. The New York Times Upshot blog gave Hillary a 91% chance of winning. Huffington Post said she had a 98% gamble of winning and the Princeton Election Consortium put her chances of winning at 99%.
Everyone should pay attention to pollster Frank Luntz. On November. 8, 2016, he predicted that "Hillary Clinton will be the side by side President of the United States." He now says that if Trump wins and surprises the pollsters, "my profession is done." Looks like he is finally going to become something right.
Beak Donohue is president and CEO of the Catholic League for Religious and Civil Rights, the nation'due south largest Cosmic civil rights organization. He was awarded his Ph.D. in folklore from New York University and is the author of eight books and many articles.
Source: https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/bill-donohue/why-trump-will-win-again
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